2015: Jonathan schemes for S’West votes

 By Niyi Odebode, John Alechenu and Olusola Fabiyi

President Goodluck Jonathan
| credits: nigerianbulletin.com

President Goodluck Jonathan and the Peoples Democratic Party are eyeing votes from the South-West to ensure the victory of the party at the first ballot during the 2015 presidential poll, investigations have revealed.

Saturday PUNCH reliably gathered that the President and his party feared that winning the North-West and the North-East might be impossible during the presidential election.

It was learnt that they had become jittery because of the realisation that losing the South-West might cost them the presidential election.

The party has, therefore, mandated members of the party from the zone holding public offices to ensure the victory of the President.

Saturday PUNCH also learnt that members from the North-West and the North-East in public offices had also been told to ensure that the President scored at least 25 per cent in the zones.

It was gathered that the performance Jonathan got from a constituency or a state would be one of the criteria for reappointing those currently holding public offices at the national level.

Investigations revealed that the party reasoned that if the President defeated the All Progressives Congress presidential candidate in the South-West and scored 25 per cent in the North-West and North-East, the second election would not be avoided.

According to Section 134 (1) of the 1999 Constitution as amended, “A candidate for an election to the office of President shall be deemed to have been duly elected, where, there being only two candidates for the election -

(a) He has the majority of votes cast at the election; and

(b) He has not less than one-quarter of the votes cast at the election in each of at least two-thirds of all the States in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.

(2) A candidate for an election to the office of President shall be deemed to have been duly elected where, there being more than two candidates for the election-

(a) He has the highest number of votes cast at the election; and

(b) He has not less than one-quarter of the votes cast at the election each of at least two-thirds of all the States in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.

(3) In a default of a candidate duly elected in accordance with subsection (2) of this section their shall be a second election in accordance with subsection (4) of this section at which the only candidate shall be – (a) the candidate who scored the highest number of votes at any election held in accordance with the said subsection (2) of this section; and (b) One among the remaining candidates who has a majority of votes in the highest number of States, so however that where there are more than one candidate with majority of votes in the highest number of States, the candidate among them with the highest total of votes cast at the election shall be the second candidate for the election.

(4) In default of a candidate duly elected under the foregoing subsections, the Independent National Electoral Commission shall within seven days of the result of the election held under the said subsections, arrange for an election between the two candidates and a candidate at such election shall be deemed elected to the office of President if (a) He has a majority of votes cast at the election; and (b) He has not less than one-quarter of the votes cast at the election in each of at least two-thirds of all the States in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja

(5) In default of a candidate duly elected under subsection (4) of this section, the Independent National Electoral Commission shall, within seven days of the result of the election held under the aforesaid subsection (4), arrange for another election between the two candidates to which the subsection relates and a candidate at such election shall be deemed to have been duly elected to the office of President, if he has a majority of the votes cast at the election.”

Saturday PUNCH gathered that the President and his party were jittery on realising that failure to win South-West would be costly for Jonathan.

It was learnt that chieftains of the party in the zone, including the Ondo State Governor, Dr. Olusegun Mimiko and his Ekiti State counterpart, Mr. Ayo Fayose, have been given the assignment of ensuring Jonathan’s landside victory in the South-West.

A chieftain of the party, who spoke to one of our correspondents on condition of anonymity, said, “In the next few weeks, the party will mobilise resources in the South-West. We want the President to not only win the South-West, but to prevent the APC from getting 25 per cent in the zone.

“We will mobilise resources; call it stomach infrastructure or anything you like. The President will trounce the APC in the South-West.”

Also a Presidency source and a governor from the party, who spoke with one of our correspondents in separate interviews in Abuja on Thursday, gave an insight into the feelings of the President and the PDP on Northern votes.

The Presidency source said, “The situation is dicey for the President and the party in North-West. You remember that even in 2011 when the situation was not as bad as it is today, the President did not really win in the zone.

“Now that almost all the states in the area are in the hands of the opposition, we may not make it there, but we will rely on the government appointees from the area to work out how we are going to win.”

But one of the party’s governors from the South-East said that the Presidency and the governors believed that the party would still win in some states in both the North-East and North-West.

He listed states where the party could spring surprise to include Adamawa, Kebbi, Zamfara, Bauchi, Gombe and Jigawa.

“So, it won’t be a total loss. What we are working against is a situation whereby the President would be seen after winning election, as the president elected by just a section of the country,” the governor said.

But the Presidency has said that Jonathan is not losing sleep over South-West, North-West and North-East votes.

The Special Adviser to the President on Political Matters, Prof. Rufai Alkali, in an exclusive interview with Saturday PUNCH, explained that Jonathan and the PDP valued Nigerian citizens.

He noted that the opposition would have wished that the crowd which took part in the President’s declaration did not show up.

According to him, the whole world saw Nigerians who, irrespective of their religious or political affiliation, trooped to Eagle Square to honour the President.

Alkali, however, described as false, attempts to “misinform” Nigerians about the popularity rating of the President.

He explained that all through Nigeria’s political history, voters especially in the North, had exhibited a diverse voting pattern and have always cast their lot where they felt their collective interests would be better served.

The Presidential aide said “President Jonathan’s appeal transcends ethno-religious sentiments.

“Nigerians will vote for him based on his record of performance. Can his opponents say the roads that have been built under this administration were not built? Can they say the airports are not there? Let our campaigns be issue-based.

“It will be unfair for anyone to say that the President is not doing anything about the sad situation in the North-East. The people know he cares and he is doing his best and by the grace of God, that situation will soon be contained.

“Let me ask you, between the President and his opponents in the other party, who was the first to go public with their declarations.”

In response, National Publicity Secretary of the All Progressives Congress, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, said, “The truth of the matter is that the PDP is scared stiff of the APC.

“Even today, without a candidate the APC is ahead in credible opinion polls, President Goodluck Jonathan’s popularity has suffered a reversal of fortune since after the President’s declaration.

“They underestimated the backlash from the insensitivity of the timing of Jonathan’s declaration less than 24 hours after the massacre of about seventy children in Potiskum.”

Experts have also said that the President might become more troubled if the Speaker, House of Representatives, Alhaji Aminu Tambuwal, joins the presidential race.

Already, there are indications that the APC National Leader, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and other leaders of the party might have concluded the deal to field the Speaker as a “neutral candidate” following the inability of the North to reach a consensus on the party’s presidential aspirant.

A former President, Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari; former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso and a Leadership Newspaper Publisher, Sam Nda-Isaiah are competing for the APC presidential ticket.

Tambuwal, who is rumoured to preparing to join the presidential race on the platform of the opposition party, has recently dumped the ruling PDP.

The APC had said that the hope for the emergence of a Northern consensus presidential candidate for the APC had dimmed following failure by leaders of the party from the region to broker a deal on Tuesday night.

With the current APC presidential aspirants failing to step down for a consensus candidate, sources said Tambuwal might be brought in as a compromise candidate and this is expected to send jitters down the spine of the President.