Russia's S-400 Missile System In Action, And How The U.S. Would Deal With It

Much hyperbole surrounds Russia’s S-400 advanced surface-to-air missile system, which is now being exported abroad and was recently deployed to Syria. Unsurprisingly, Russia has leveraged this deployment to further build-up the public’s perception of the S-400. Still, the S-400 is highly capable, and beating it, or any advanced air defense system, is far from simple.

The video was filmed at the Kapustin Yar test range in the Astakhan region of Russia, during a test of the S-400 against ballistic missile targets. The test supposedly took place while the S-400 was under heavy electronic jamming conditions. Despite this, Russia claims all four of the missiles hit their targets during their mid-course stage of flight. 

It is unclear exactly what components of the S-400 system were present for the test aside from the 92N6E “Gravestone” fire control radar, command and control vehicles, transporter-erector-launchers and the missiles. The S-400 can use multiple types of missiles, and can integrate with various sensor systems including older radars designed for later versions of the S-300 system. This trial appeared to test the system in a mobile expeditionary fashion, not where the S-400 unit is one of many surface-to-air missile systems and sensors that are tied together into a integrated air defense system (IADS). 

Advanced IADS are increasingly using some level of sensor fusion to meld many different sensor’s data together into a single common “picture” that is capable of providing engagement-quality tracks of enemy targets.

This makes tactics like stealth and jamming less effective than when taking on a single surface-to-air missile system located in just one geographical place at one time (see this image and this image.)

Making things even more complicated is that most IADS have many different sensor and missile systems’ capabilities (not to mention fighter and surveillance aircraft) overlapping in a layered fashion, and some of these could be road-mobile. These systems can pop-up at different locations at different points in times, making them very unpredictable.

This means that what was a once “most survivable route” through an enemy’s IADS, charted based on previous intelligence and often referred to as a “blue line,” could change without notice. If a previously unknown or road mobile air defense system were to pop up in the aircraft’s path it could make the crew adapt its route in real-time, something that could cause a domino effect that greatly reduces their ability to survive over enemy airspace. 

Remember, even the stealthiest aircraft is not invisible to radar; it simply has reduced detection range and this may vary greatly depending on what angle the stealth aircraft is at in relation to the sensor radiating it and what wavelength/band/frequency that radar sensor is operating on. Ground-basedinfrared search and track systems are an entirely different story, but these too can be tied into an IADS.

America’s unique electronic warfare and radar suppression abilities includes the Growler, but also many other platforms and ancillary capabilities as well. This complex ecosystem of weaponry and sensors includes various surveillance aircraft, hacking and cyber warfare abilities, active suppression of enemy air defenses tactics and weaponry, along with low-observable aircraft and long-range “standoff” munitions. The last two are especially potent when combined together and electronic warfare support is added. 

Firing long-range low observable (stealthy) weaponry from even a non-stealthy aircraft gives enough stand-off distance to begin taking out an enemy’s known air defenses at a safe distance today, the S-400 included in most cases. When a stealthy launch platform is used instead, you can use more plentiful weapons with less range as that stealth aircraft can get closer to the air defenses being targeted than their non-stealthy brethren can. 

For instance, an F-16 may be able to get well within JASSM missile range of an advanced SAM site while an F-35 could get within the outer-edge of Small Diameter Bomb range. When you add jamming support, these ranges decrease by a noticeable margin, depending on what tactics are used and what the capacity available is to employ those tactics. The problem is that against an advanced foe, you’re not going up against a single SAM site or radar, but a full constellation of systems that includes aerial assets, just like the advanced integrated air defense system we discussed before.

That is why “brochure comparisons” of systems is nearly useless for such complex military topics. In real life, the Growler does not take on the S-400 alone, and vice-versa. 

An advanced IADS including the S-400 in it will likely feature increased detection ranges against stealthy and non-stealthy aircraft alike. It will also make jamming more problematic, and could mean blinding even a portion of that network is much tougher due to multiple layers of redundant air defenses tied together. This is where cyber warfare and pinpoint strikes based on multiple sources of intelligence can be more effective than jamming or going after the surface-to-air missiles and sensors themselves. For instance, taking out the IADS’ “brains,” locations where the sensor fusion occurs, or striking the system’s communications channels.

Japan: Another Grim 'Ghost Ship' Discovery

Four bodies have been found inside a capsized boat discovered floating off the north coast of Japan's main Honshu island -- the latest of the so-called "ghost ships" washing up in Japanese waters in recent weeks.

The vessel -- a 12.5-meter long wooden boat -- was found on Sunday 10km (6.2 miles) south of the Ushitaki fishing port in Sai Village, Aomori prefecture, a spokesman for the Aomori Coast Guard told CNN Monday.

Though there was nothing to definitively identify the boat, it looks very similar to boats found in October in the same region, which featured Korean "Hangul" lettering and markings on their hull, he said, adding that they may have come from North Korea.

The condition of the latest boat indicated it may have been drifting for some time, he said.

Chilling cargo

Over the past two months, at least 12 wooden boats have been found adrift along Japan's coast carrying chilling cargo -- the decaying bodies of 22 people, according to police and Japan's coast guard.

All the bodies were "partially skeletonized" -- two were found without heads -- and one boat contained six skulls, the coast guard said. The first boat was found in October, then a series of boats were found in November.

Nigeria: Pro-Biafra protests shut down Onitsha, Aba

Activities in the commercial city of Aba in Abia State were yesterday stalled as the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) continued its protest  for the release of its leader and Director of Radio Biafra, Nnamdi Kanu.

Though the protest was peaceful, vehicular movement was grounded as the group marched on double lanes of major roads. The Aba-Owerri Road, Azikiwe Road, Faulks Road, Tonimas, Aba-Ikot Ekpene Expressway and other entry and exit routes were blocked.

It was gathered that the group, yesterday, went round major markets in Aba and warned traders against opening for business. The order was obeyed except for shop owners within streets who though opened, closed down upon sighting the crowd.

Most public and private schools opened for business though they said it was a risky gamble owing to the tension in town. Most proproetors said they could not close as they were preparing for the December break.

Banks witnessed low patronage as only few customers came for business.

Sources said the protesters blocked the Enugu-Port Harcourt Expressway and prevented vehicles from entering Aba.

The protesters said  they would not relent in their quest to get freedom for Kanu. 65- year-old Jude Iheme, a pastor, said the actualisation of Biafra was revealed to him in a dream and so he would not relent until Biafra was realised.

“I don’t believe in violence or arms bandying because I am a pastor. Since I got a revelation about Biafra, I have been preaching about it everywhere I go and always joined any pro-Biafra protest because we need to be free.”

Another protester said the protest would continue so far the Federal Government refuses to release Nnamdi Kanu, saying that there would be another protest on the next adjourned date of his trial.

“Nnamdi Kanu is our leader, there is no way we will remain quiet while he is facing trial unjustly. How many of the Boko Haram leaders have they arrested and tried?”

The protest ,which started at about 7am went on till about 5pm as members of the group were seen on the streets of Aba still protesting.

Residents have however lamented their loss since the protest started. They said continuing the protest in December, a period regarded as the peak of economic activities would not be in the interest of business owners.

They urged President Muhammadu Buhari and authorities concerned to seek ways of ending the agitations.

Nigeria: Bafarawa, Dasuki, Dokpesi Arrested For $2b Arms Deals:

After a month’s siege to his Abuja home and legal fireworks, former National Security Adviser (NSA) Col. Sambo Dasuki (rtd.) was yesterday arrested for interrogation on the $2b phoney arms deals.

The Department of State Services (DSS) is to hand Dasuki over to the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).

The EFCC intensified its probe of the arms deals by arresting ex-Sokoto State Governor Attahiru Bafarawa and the Emeritus Chairman of Africa Independent Television (AIT), Chief Raymond Dokpesi.

Dokpesi was picked up for allegedly collecting N2.1billion from the Office of the NSA. Bafarawa allegedly got N100million cash.

The EFCC has launched a manhunt for a former National Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Mohammed Haliru Bello, in connection with some diverted arms cash.

One of the suspects in the EFCC’s custody is said to have refunded N200million.

He also pleaded for bail to refund about N1billion credited to him as diverted funds.

Dasuki was arrested early yesterday by a team of DSS operatives.

The ex-NSA’s arrest came barely 14 hours after a former Minister of State for Finance, Bashir Yuguda and 20 others were picked up by the EFCC.

Dasuki’s arrest ended a month-long siege to his Abuja home and a legal battle between him and the DSS.

A source, who spoke in confidence, said: “The DSS operatives succeeded in having access to Dasuki’s mansion at John Kadiya Street in Asokoro District and arrested him.”

Dasuki was said to have surrendered to the EFCC team which effected his arrest.  He is expected to appear before the Presidential Committee on Arms Procurement before being taken to the EFCC.

“Already, a panel of interrogators is awaiting the arrival of Dasuki in EFCC because some prime suspects, like Bashir Yuguda and ex-ONSA Director of Finance Shaibu Salisu, have written statements on how they got funds from the former NSA’s office.”

Bafarawa and Dokpesi are being held for allegedly “benefitting from the arms votes”.

A top source in EFCC said: “This agency arrested Dokpesi because records made available have shown that he collected N2.1billion from the Office of the National Security Adviser. We need to ask him what the allocation was meant for.

“Bafarawa, who was not a political appointee like Dokpesi, hauled N100million from the same office. No contract was traceable to the ex-governor. “Definitely, we are going through many payment vouchers and you will be shocked  by our findings.”

Preliminary investigation by the EFCC revealed that most of the funds meant for arms purchase might have been used to finance the 2015 campaign of the Peoples Democratic Party(PDP).

The source added: “From what some of the suspects admitted, the arms funds were diverted to the campaign of the PDP. In fact, we have launched a manhunt for a former National Chairman of PDP, Mohammed Bello Haliru.

“A suspect has offered to refund N200million out of the over N1billion given to him for the campaign. The suspect is begging the EFCC to grant him bail to source for the balance.

“Since Monday, lawyers have been battling to secure bail for most of the suspects. The EFCC is insisting on due process and stringent bail conditions to avoid any suspect escaping abroad.”

Facebook's CEO Says He's Giving Away 99% of his Facebook Shares

Mark Zuckerberg announced Tuesday that he's giving away 99% of his Facebook shares — valued at $45 billion today — to charity during his lifetime.

The Facebook CEO announced the news in a letter to his newborn daughter, Max.

Zuckerberg and his wife, Priscilla Chan, created the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative. Its mission mimics much of what Zuckerberg and Chan's donations have focused on in the past: personalized learning, curing diseases, and connecting people.

The move is not surprising given that five years ago Zuckerberg signed the "Giving Pledge" — along with other tech billionaires such as Bill Gates — to give away the majority of his wealth.

Zuckerberg will retain control of the majority of Facebook voting rights for the foreseeable future, and has limited himself to giving away no more than $1 billion in Facebook stock each year for the next three years, according to an SEC filing.

Because of Facebook's unique dual-class structure, where he owns special super voting shares, Zuckerberg can give away ordinary shares of stock while still maintaining majority control of the social network he founded in 2004.

The Facebook CEO announced his donation in a letter to his newborn daughter, Max.

Today your mother and I are committing to spend our lives doing our small part to help solve these challenges. I will continue to serve as Facebook's CEO for many, many years to come, but these issues are too important to wait until you or we are older to begin this work. By starting at a young age, we hope to see compounding benefits throughout our lives.

As you begin the next generation of the Chan Zuckerberg family, we also begin the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative to join people across the world to advance human potential and promote equality for all children in the next generation. Our initial areas of focus will be personalized learning, curing disease, connecting people and building strong communities.

We will give 99% of our Facebook shares -- currently about $45 billion -- during our lives to advance this mission. We know this is a small contribution compared to all the resources and talents of those already working on these issues. But we want to do what we can, working alongside many others.

Chan and Zuckerberg made a video before Max was born about their new project.

Post by Chan Zuckerberg Initiative .

'Wow'

With the announcement, philanthropists such as Bill Gates and Bono congratulated the young couple on giving away the majority of their money.

Bill and Melinda Gates wrote in a press release:

As for your decision to give back so generously, and to deepen your commitment now, the first word that comes to mind is: Wow. The example you’re setting today is an inspiration to us and the world. We can be confident of this: Max and every child born today will grow up in a world that is better than the one we know now. As you say, 'seeds planted now will grow.' Your work will bear fruit for many decades to come.

Zuckerberg and Chan have already donated more than $1.6 billion to charity in the past decade, including a $100 million gift to the Newark Public School System, a $25 million donation to the CDC to stop the spread of Ebola, and a $120 million commitment to education in the Bay Area.

Bono, the lead singer of U2, said:

In these troubled times, Mark and Priscilla’s announcement today is life-affirming and will be life-changing for tens of millions of people. The scope of their commitment will be stunning to many, but to their friends it is not surprising. This is who they are. Community for Mark and Priscilla isn’t just a word, it’s a core value. I can’t wait to see what they achieve, not just with their wealth, but by their example and with their ingenuity, creativity and vision applied to some of the biggest challenges — and opportunities — of our time.

Air Asia QZ8501 Crash Into The Java Sea

The way pilots responded to a technical malfunction resulted in the crash of Air Asia Flight QZ8501, investigators said Tuesday.

The ill-fated plane was en route to Singapore from the Indonesian city of Surabaya on December 28 last year when it crashed into the Java Sea, killing all 162 people on board.

The plane's flight control computer had a cracked solder joint that kept malfunctioning. Aircraft maintenance records found it had malfunctioned 23 times in the year before the crash, and the interval of those became shorter in the three months prior to the crash.

"Subsequent flight crew action resulted in inability to control the aircraft... causing the aircraft to depart from the normal flight envelope and enter a prolonged stall condition that was beyond the capability of the flight crew to recover," Indonesia's National Transport Safety Committee said in a report.

In other words, "it's a series of technical failures but it's the pilot response that leads to the plane crashing.

The investigation, a joint effort involving Australian, French, Singaporean and Malaysian authorities, point to weaknesses in pilot training in dealing with upsets, or when an aircraft is angled greater than 45 degrees.

"Our recommendation to Air Asia is to train their pilots flying the Airbus plane on how to make an upset recovery," investigator Nurcahyo Utomo said.

The Air Asia pilots had not been trained for that scenario, he added, because the manual provided by the plane's manufacturer said the aircraft, an Airbus 320, was designed to prevent it from becoming upset and therefore upset recovery training was unnecessary.

Air Asia has since required upset recovery training for its pilots, Utomo said.

Utomo also said the cockpit voice recorder showed confusing instructions from the captain to the copilot who was manning the controls at the time.

"The most interesting part that could be heard from the CVR (cockpit voice recorder) is that whenever the plane went up the captain said 'pull down'...To go down, the captain has to say 'push', while to go up, the captain has to say 'pull' in reference to moving the side stick handle."

"A huge amount of training is done on take off and landing and traditionally of course is 70-80% (of when accidents take place), only 10% takes part in the cruise phase of flight. But if something does happen in the cruise phase of flight, it does typically end up fatal."

Preliminary findings from the NTSC earlier this year said roughly 35 minutes into the two hour flight, the pilot asked air traffic control for permission to climb to avoid stormy weather.

The plane went from cruising at 32,000 feet, ascending steeply to 37,400 in about 30 seconds -- something commercial planes are not designed to do. It may have been climbing at a rate twice as fast as it could and should, one analyst said.

Minutes later, the plane disappeared from radar.

Although the area was experiencing turbulent weather patterns, seven other planes flying nearbylanded safely.

Malaysia-based Air Asia did not have the clearance to fly the route on that particular day.

Indonesia's National Transportation Safety Committee issued several recommendations to Air Asia, Airbus as well as Indonesian, US and European aviation regulatory bodies but the statement did not detail what they are.

The crash is one in a string of aviation disasters, including the mysterious disappearance of MH370, to occur in Southeast Asia.

Ghostly Ships Filled With Dead Bodies Arrive On Japan's Shores

An unsettling mystery has washed up on Japan's shores.

Over the past two months, at least eight wooden boats have been found in the Sea of Japan on or near the coast, carrying a chilling cargo -- the decaying bodies of 20 people, Japan's coast guard said

All of the bodies were badly decomposed and "partially skeletonized" -- two were found without heads -- and one boat contained six skulls, the coast guard said. The first boat was found in October, then a series of boats in late November.

Coast guard officials are now trying to unravel the riddle of where these ghostly boats came from and what happened to those on board.

Their best guess so far is that the ships are from North Korea.

One clue pointing that direction is Korean lettering on the hull of a boat containing 10 decomposing bodies, one of three boats which were found adrift off the city of Wajima on the west coast of Japan on November 20.

The writing said "Korean People's Army," the name of North Korea's military defense forces, the coast guard said.

Another clue could come from a tattered scrap of cloth found on one of the boats, which looks like it could be from a North Korean national flag, Japan's biggest broadcaster NHK reported.

"There's no doubt that these boats are North Korean," John Nilsson-Wright, head of the Asia program at the Chatham House policy institute, told CNN after looking at pictures of the boats.

Wright added that the lettering on the boats he looked at is Korean -- or Hangul -- text and the "primitive" boats and reference to the Korean People's Army makes it "very logical" to assume the boats are from North Korea.

Yoshihiko Yamada, a maritime expert, told NHK that the vessels bear a "striking resemblance" to those used by defectors from North Korea.

He gave a possible explanation for the fleet and its deathly crew arriving on Japan's shores: "(The boats) are made of wood and are old and heavy. They can't travel very fast and the engines are not powerful enough to turn the ships against the currents."

Some in the Japanese media, including NHK, have also speculated that the vessels could be fishing boats that strayed off course.

Wright believes it is more likely to be people trying to flee the regime, although he added that it's impossible to be sure with the limited information available.

"What we do know is that for those people living outside of (North Korean capital) Pyongyang ... life remains extraordinarily hard, and it may be an economic necessity as much as a desire for political freedom (that is) encouraging some people in the North to try and leave the country."

He added that defectors could be taking the more dangerous route across the Sea of Japan because traditional routes, like crossing the border into China, are now policed and could be harder to use.

Russia Is Already Exacting Its Revenge On Turkey

Just over 24 hours after Turkeyshot down a Russian warplaneafter claiming the jet had violated Turkish airspace, Moscow is already exacting its revenge — albeit subtly.

"We're not going to wage a war against Turkey. ... But we will seriously reconsider our agreements with the Turkish government," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in a press call on Wednesday,according to The Associated Press.

"Our attitude to the Turkish people hasn't changed," Lavrov continued. "We only have questions about the Turkish leadership."

Turkey defended its decision to down the plane on Tuesday, contending that the plane was in Turkish airspace and had been warned repeatedly before it was shot down by Turkish F-16 jets. But Russian President Vladimir Putin said the plane was destroyed by a Turkish missile while flying in Syrian airspace, roughly a mile from the Turkish border.

By Wednesday morning, Russia had begun bombarding rebels — including Turkmen insurgents, who have ethnic ties to Turkey — in Syria's Latakia province, ignoring demands made by Turkey over the past week to end its military operations close to the Turkish border.

Russia also announced Wednesday that it would deploy state-of-the-art S-400 missile systems to the Russian Hemeimeem air base near Latakia, Syria — 30 miles south of the Turkish border, the AP reported. The missiles, which are able to hit a plane with extreme accuracy, are evidently meant to deter Turkish jets from shooting down Russian planes in the future.

Additionally, Russia issued an official travel warning advising its citizens against visiting Turkey. And Russian travel agencies announced on Wednesday that they will withdraw their business in Turkey until next year, according to a translation by Boris Zilberman, a Russia expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank.

Russian tourists account for a huge portion of Turkey's tourism industry — 3.3 million Russian tourists visited Turkey in 2014, the second-largest number of tourist arrivals after Germany and around 12% of total visitors, according to Reuters.

And in a largely symbolic gesture on Wednesday, the Russian parliament proposed a five-year jail term for anyone who denies that the mass killings of Armenians that began under Ottoman rule in 1915 constituted a "genocide," according to an article translated by Foreign Policycolumnist and Russia commentator Julia Ioffe.

Use of the word remains a charged issue in Turkey, which staunchly objects to such a characterization. Eastern Armenia remained part of the Russian Empire until its collapse in 1917.

And there is one other way that Russia could retaliate against Turkey more directly: Namely, by drawing attention to the NATO ally's suspected ties to the Islamic State in Syria.

As The Soufan Group noted on Wednesday in its daily briefing, Russia "is likely to use intelligence and disinformation to highlight Turkey’s dealings with the Islamic State."

Western officials have long harbored suspicions about Turkey's links to the Islamic State, also known as ISIS, ISIL, or Daesh. One official told The Guardian's Martin Chulov in July that aUS-led raid on the compound housing ISIS' "chief financial officer" produced "undeniable" evidence that Turkish officials directly dealt with ranking ISIS members — namely, by purchasing oil from them.

Separately, experts, Kurds, and even US Vice President Joe Biden have suggested in the past that Turkey has helped enable ISIS by turning a blind eye to the vast smuggling networks of weapons and fighters during the ongoing Syrian war.

For his part, Biden charged that countries like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates were so focused on ousting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that they did not properly vet the opposition groups to which they sent money and weapons. (He later apologized.)

Turkey joined the US-led anti-ISIS coalition in late July, after a suicide bomber with links to the terrorist group killed 32 activists in the southeastern border town of Suruc. Still, lingering suspicions remained about Turkey's commitment to fighting ISIS, as it embarked on a dual campaign to wipe out a Kurdish insurgency in its southeast.

Those suspicions were all but put to rest last month when an ISIS-linked suicide bomber killed more than 150 people at a peace rally in Ankara — the deadliest terror attack in Turkey's recent history.

But one day after Turkey downed its warplane, Russia has already begun to bring Turkey's murky history with the group back into focus in order to discredit Ankara's role in the anti-ISIS coalition — and legitimize its own.

"Turkey has demonstrated that it is protecting ISIS," Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said Wednesday on Twitter, adding that the damage from "Turkey's criminal actions ... will be hard to repair."

Medvedev was seemingly echoing a statement made by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, when he referred to Turkey as "accomplices of terrorists."

"We established a long time ago that large quantities of oil and oil products from territory captured by the Islamic State have been arriving on Turkish territory," Putin said from theRussian Black Sea resort of Sochi before a meeting with Jordan's King Abdullah.

Lavrov added on Wednesday morning that "terrorists" have been using Turkish territory to plot attacks on other countries, the AP reported. He claimed that the Russian warplane shot down by Turkey had been targeting the extremists' oil infrastructure in Syria.

In any case, this war of words may be as far as Russia is willing to go — for now.

"Putin's initial reaction — calling the incident 'a stab in the back by the terrorists' accomplices' — is about as bellicose as could be imagined. But Putin is no stranger to harsh rhetoric, and he has broader interests to play for," geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, told Business Insider on Tuesday.

Bremmer noted, however, that the "huge egos" of Turkish President Erdogan and Putin certainly won't help future efforts to mend Turkish-Russian relations.

The Soufan Group largely agreed.

"The most unfortunate consequence will be that Russia will now roll back from its apparent willingness to consider solutions for Syria that do not depend on Assad remaining in power," the group said. "This is a key demand for Turkey, and in the macho world occupied by Erdogan and Putin, neither will want to appear to have blinked first."